Prediction Markets and Event Contracts
A detailed analysis of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary on Kalshi shows how liquidity can vanish during live events, forcing traders to weigh execution risk against potential upside before results are known
The Danish Gambling Authority has secured a court order to block 98 gambling websites, including Polymarket, for targeting Danish players without a license. The move highlights ongoing challenges in curbing unauthorized online gambling
South Korea has authorized a block against Polymarket, joining a growing list of countries restricting access to the prediction market platform. The move highlights ongoing regulatory pressure despite Polymarket’s recent U.S. return
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s approach to prediction markets is under fire as state and tribal regulators challenge federal intervention, raising questions about the future of event contracts and regulatory authority
Kalshi has removed all sports-related mention markets from its platform as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reviews the category, raising questions about the future of speech-based betting contracts
Trading volume on US midterm election prediction markets has already exceeded the total for the 2024 cycle, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket seeing rapid growth and increased regulatory attention before November's elections
Novig has filed lawsuits against Wisconsin, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, and Washington, challenging state efforts to restrict its federally regulated sports prediction markets just weeks after its national relaunch
A new Gallup poll shows a decline in self-reported gambling among U.S. adults, with traditional forms like lottery and casino play seeing the largest drops. The findings raise questions about changing attitudes and reporting habits
A record surge in World Cup betting activity has highlighted the rapid growth of legal sports wagering in the US, with operators and prediction markets now preparing for a potentially unprecedented NFL season as regulatory challenges continue
Polymarket US has started beta testing parlay contracts after self-certifying its new product with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but access remains limited as the platform refines its multi-outcome trading system
A Washington state court has ordered Kalshi to suspend its most popular prediction markets and implement strict geofencing, marking a significant regulatory move that could impact how event contracts are offered in the state
A Washington state judge has ordered Kalshi to halt most event contract offerings in the state, citing likely violations of gambling law and requiring new geofencing measures as the legal dispute over prediction markets continues
A Washington judge has ordered Kalshi to geofence its platform, blocking sports, politics, and entertainment event contracts for state residents. Tribal leaders expect the dispute over prediction markets to reach the Supreme Court
Baltimore has filed lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket, claiming the platforms violated local consumer protection laws by offering unlicensed sports betting. The case highlights ongoing disputes over prediction markets and regulatory oversight
BiggerZ is rolling out a unified betting platform that combines crypto casino games, sports betting, and prediction markets, emphasizing transparent rules and verifiable outcomes for players while supporting both crypto and select fiat payments
JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to Polymarket in October 2025, citing regulatory uncertainty. The move affects the federally licensed event exchange as it explores new funding and a potential IPO
Federal regulators are investigating so-called mention markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users wager on phrases spoken by public figures such as President Trump, raising concerns about insider trading and market fairness
Fliff and Onyx Odds have applied for registration as Futures Commission Merchants with the National Futures Association, signaling a possible move toward federally regulated event contracts as sweepstakes gaming faces increased regulatory attention
The White House is preparing to meet with crypto and prediction market executives on August 19, ahead of a key CFTC advisory session, with President Donald Trump possibly attending and regulatory priorities still unsettled
Kalshi has introduced event contracts based on Nvidia GPU rental prices, allowing traders to speculate on AI compute costs and providing new forward curves to estimate future GPU pricing trends
