A record surge in World Cup betting activity has highlighted the rapid growth of legal sports wagering in the US, with operators and prediction markets now preparing for a potentially unprecedented NFL season as regulatory challenges continue
Legal sports betting in the United States reached new heights during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with operators and prediction markets reporting record activity. As the tournament concludes, attention is shifting to the NFL season, where the impact of expanded wagering and ongoing legal disputes is expected to shape the market for both players and operators.
World Cup Betting Activity Breaks Records
According to operator and market reports, the 2026 FIFA World Cup generated a significant increase in betting handle compared to previous tournaments. DraftKings reported a 650% rise in total bets on the World Cup compared to 2022, while BetMGM identified the Spain-Argentina final as its most-bet soccer match ever. Research firm H2 Gambling Capital estimated that $2.9 billion was wagered on the World Cup in the US, more than double the amount bet on soccer at legal sportsbooks during June and July 2025. Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi also saw a surge in activity, with nearly $1.9 billion in trading volume for the World Cup winner market—almost four times the volume of this year’s Super Bowl contracts.
State Expansion and Regulatory Shifts
The growth in World Cup betting is closely tied to the expansion of legal sports wagering across new states. Since the 2022 tournament, states including Ohio, Kentucky, and Massachusetts have launched regulated sports betting, significantly increasing the size of the legal market. Federally regulated prediction markets have also expanded their offerings, with sports contracts now a primary driver of user activity. However, the legal status of sports event contracts remains contested, as some states argue that these contracts constitute unlicensed sports betting, while platforms like Kalshi maintain that federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight preempts state action. Ongoing lawsuits between the CFTC and certain states are expected to influence the availability of prediction markets during the NFL season and beyond.
Soccer Betting Interest and NFL Implications
Despite the World Cup’s record numbers, industry analysts remain cautious about sustained soccer betting interest in the US. Factors such as the tournament’s US-based schedule and the participation of the US Men’s National Team contributed to the spike, but soccer still trails football, basketball, and baseball in overall betting volume. Most operators expect that the majority of World Cup bettors will return to NFL wagering in the fall, with the NFL remaining the dominant product for American sports bettors. Prediction markets, which added millions of new users during the World Cup, are positioned to benefit from this transition, especially in states like California and Texas where state-regulated sportsbooks remain unavailable.
Legal Uncertainty for Prediction Markets
The future of sports event contracts on prediction markets is uncertain as legal challenges continue. Some states have imposed restrictions or attempted to block these contracts, arguing they fall under state gambling laws. The CFTC, however, has taken legal action to defend its regulatory authority over federally designated contract markets. The outcome of these disputes could determine whether platforms like Kalshi can continue to offer sports event contracts for major events such as the 2030 World Cup. In the meantime, prediction markets remain accessible in most large states without state-regulated sports betting, but their long-term status will depend on court decisions and potential Supreme Court review.
Understanding the difference between traditional sportsbook wagers and prediction-market event contracts is essential for US bettors. While sportsbooks operate under state gaming regulation and offer fixed-odds bets, prediction markets function as federally regulated exchanges where users trade contracts based on event outcomes. The legal distinction affects where and how these products are available, as well as the types of events and markets offered. Ongoing litigation and regulatory developments will continue to shape the landscape for both products in the coming years.
