The NFL has issued a direct warning to prediction market operators to pull specific bet types from their platforms ahead of the season opener, setting itself apart from MLB and NHL which have embraced such markets
The NFL has escalated its campaign against prediction markets, issuing a pointed directive to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to eliminate a broad set of event contracts it deems a threat to game integrity. This move lands just weeks before the league’s September 9 kickoff, and signals a hardening stance as other major U.S. sports leagues move in the opposite direction.
League targets specific bet categories
In a letter sent to Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered Designated Contract Markets, the NFL’s Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel outlined four categories of bets the league wants removed: those easily manipulated by a single person, inherently objectionable wagers, officiating-related contracts, and bets knowable in advance. The list covers everything from whether a kicker will miss a field goal to player injuries, officiating decisions, and roster moves.
Examples flagged by the NFL include contracts on whether a quarterback’s first pass will be incomplete, if a player will be injured or miss a game, and even bets tied to broadcast mentions or celebrity attendance. The league argues these markets create unacceptable risks for manipulation, insider knowledge, or direct threats to player safety and public confidence.
Regulatory context and league authority
The NFL’s letter leans heavily on the CFTC’s own proposed rulemaking, which in June identified many of these event contracts as contrary to the public interest. The public comment period on those rules closed in July, but no final regulatory action has been announced. The NFL insists that sports leagues are best positioned to determine which contracts should be prohibited, citing CFTC Commissioner Michael Selig’s statement that leagues’ expertise on integrity issues deserves deference from market operators.
Despite the NFL’s repeated requests—first made in March and reiterated in the latest letter—most prediction market operators have not voluntarily removed the targeted contracts. The only notable exception is Kalshi, which recently pulled certain injury-related markets at the CFTC’s request. The NFL maintains that continued listing of these bets undermines trust in both the games and the prediction markets themselves.
Contrast with other leagues and market impact
While the NFL is doubling down on its opposition, MLB and the NHL have moved to formalize partnerships with prediction market platforms, signaling a willingness to experiment with event contracts as part of their broader engagement strategies. This divergence leaves the NFL isolated among major U.S. leagues, despite being the most bet-on sport in the country.
For prediction market operators, the NFL’s position creates a regulatory and reputational dilemma. Platforms must weigh the risk of alienating the country’s most powerful sports league against the potential for regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC. For players, the practical effect is a shrinking menu of NFL-related event contracts, especially those involving player performance, officiating, or inside information.
What happens next for prediction markets
The NFL’s latest intervention raises the stakes for the CFTC’s pending rulemaking on event contracts. If the regulator adopts the league’s recommendations, operators could face mandatory removal of a wide range of NFL-related markets. Until then, the NFL’s aggressive posture is likely to chill innovation in sports prediction markets, at least where football is concerned. The league’s insistence on controlling which bets are allowed is less about protecting fans and more about preserving its own authority over the narrative and economics of its games. As long as the NFL remains unwilling to cede ground, prediction market operators will find little room to maneuver—and players will see fewer options for NFL event contracts, regardless of demand.
Event contracts on prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbook bets in both structure and regulation. While sportsbooks operate under state gambling laws and offer fixed-odds wagers, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket function as federally regulated exchanges where users buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees these platforms, and the distinction between a legal event contract and a prohibited sports wager remains a live regulatory question. For now, the NFL’s stance ensures that the boundaries of what can be bet on in football remain tightly policed, with the league itself acting as the final arbiter.
