The NFL has issued a renewed warning to prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket urging them to remove contracts tied to player injuries and other easily manipulated outcomes ahead of the 2026 season
With the 2026 NFL season just days away, the National Football League has escalated its campaign against prediction markets listing contracts it deems vulnerable to manipulation and threats to player safety. The league’s latest letter, sent to operators including Kalshi and Polymarket, singles out contracts tied to player injuries, fan safety, and outcomes that can be swayed by a single individual’s actions.
League Targets Manipulation Risks
The NFL’s letter, authored by Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel, identifies a range of contract types the league wants off the boards. These include wagers on whether a player is active for a given week, contracts tied to player misconduct, and bets on specific in-game events such as a kicker missing a field goal or a running back’s first carry falling short of a set yardage. The league also objects to contracts based on broadcast mentions and celebrity attendance, arguing these outcomes are too easily influenced by insiders or participants.
Perel’s communication makes clear that the NFL sees these contracts as a direct threat to the integrity of its games and the safety of its players, coaches, and officials. The letter warns that continuing to offer such contracts exposes both the league and prediction market participants to significant risk, especially as the platforms grow in prominence and attract more attention from regulators and the public.
Ongoing Tension With Prediction Platforms
This is not the NFL’s first attempt to rein in prediction market offerings. The league previously raised these concerns in a letter earlier in 2026, but says the same categories of contracts remain available on major exchanges. The renewed warning comes as Kalshi has expanded its reach, recently becoming the official prediction market partner for nine Major League Baseball teams. Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to list a wide array of sports-related contracts, some of which fall into the categories the NFL wants removed.
Legal scrutiny of prediction markets is intensifying at both the state and federal level. Several states are actively pursuing regulatory action against platforms like Kalshi, arguing that their event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling. For context, reported earlier litigation and federal investigations have already put Kalshi under pressure to tighten its compliance and contract offerings.
Specific Contracts Under Fire
The NFL’s letter details the types of contracts it considers most problematic. Among them: bets on whether a quarterback’s first pass is incomplete, whether a receiver’s first target is incomplete, and the number of penalty flags thrown in a game. The league argues that these outcomes can be manipulated by a single player, official, or broadcaster, undermining the fairness of both the game and the market. The NFL also calls for a halt to contracts tied to officiating decisions, which it says could incentivize improper conduct or create the appearance of impropriety.
Platforms have not publicly responded to the latest letter, and it remains unclear whether they will voluntarily delist the flagged contracts or wait for regulatory intervention. The NFL’s stance puts additional pressure on prediction markets to self-police or risk further legal and reputational fallout as the season begins.
Broader Regulatory and Market Impact
The NFL’s renewed push comes at a time when prediction markets are seeking greater legitimacy and mainstream partnerships. However, the league’s aggressive posture signals that sports organizations are not willing to cede control over event-related wagering to unregulated or lightly regulated platforms. The risk calculus for operators is shifting: contracts that once seemed like harmless novelty bets are now flashpoints for regulatory and legal scrutiny.
For players and market participants, the practical effect is a narrowing of available contracts and increased uncertainty about which event markets will remain accessible. As regulators and leagues assert more influence, prediction platforms face a choice between compliance and confrontation. The NFL’s move is a clear warning that the era of unchecked event contracts tied to player status and easily manipulated outcomes is coming to an end—at least where the league’s brand and integrity are concerned.
Event contracts on prediction markets differ fundamentally from traditional sportsbook wagers. While sportsbooks operate under state gaming licenses and are subject to strict regulatory oversight, prediction markets often function as exchanges where users buy and sell positions on the outcome of real-world events. These contracts can cover a wide range of topics, but when tied to sports, especially outcomes that hinge on a single player or official, they raise unique integrity and legal risks. Understanding this distinction is essential for anyone navigating the evolving landscape of sports-related prediction markets in the United States.
