A new Morgan Stanley survey reveals that one in four of its North American summer interns used a betting or prediction market app in the past year, highlighting ongoing questions about age requirements and regulatory scrutiny in the US
A recent internal survey by Morgan Stanley has found that more than 25 percent of its North American summer interns reported using a betting or prediction market mobile application within the last year. The results, drawn from over 500 interns—many of whom are 21 or younger—underscore the growing popularity of event-based wagering among younger adults and raise new questions about regulatory oversight and age restrictions in the United States.
Survey Details and Key Findings
This year marks the first time Morgan Stanley included questions about betting and prediction market usage in its annual intern survey. According to the data, 25 percent of respondents said they had used a betting or prediction market app in the previous 12 months. Among those who participated, 55 percent reported using more than one platform, with activity concentrated around the two leading prediction market operators. The survey covered interns across North America, providing a snapshot of usage patterns among a demographic that is both highly educated and at the lower end of the legal gambling age spectrum.
Age Requirements and Regulatory Scrutiny
The findings come as prediction markets face increased attention from US regulators and responsible gambling advocates, particularly regarding their appeal to younger users. While most states require sports bettors to be at least 21, some prediction market platforms have allowed users to open accounts at 18. This regulatory gap has drawn concern from organizations such as the National Council on Problem Gambling, which recently reported that 37 percent of US adults aged 18 to 34 had used a prediction market. The difference in age requirements between traditional sports betting and event contract platforms remains a point of debate as the sector expands.
Employer and Industry Responses
Wall Street employers have begun to respond to the rise in prediction market participation among younger professionals. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have introduced new restrictions on employee involvement in certain prediction markets, with Morgan Stanley updating its employee code of conduct to address event contract trading. Goldman Sachs has also prohibited trading in financial and political event contracts offered by yes-or-no exchanges. Meanwhile, some prediction market operators are moving toward stricter age policies; for example, Novig recently adopted a nationwide 21-plus age requirement for its sports-focused peer-to-peer exchange.
Prediction Markets Versus Traditional Forecasting
The Morgan Stanley survey also explored whether prediction markets consistently outperform traditional forecasting methods. The bank noted that prediction markets do not always have a clear advantage over political polls or expert forecasts. In some cases, complex polling aggregation or teams of so-called superforecasters—when their predictions are combined statistically—have matched or exceeded the accuracy of market-based predictions. This ongoing debate highlights the complexity of using collective market wisdom as a forecasting tool.
Prediction markets are platforms where users can buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections or sports results. In the US, these platforms operate in a regulatory gray area, with oversight divided between federal agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state gambling regulators. The distinction between a prediction market contract and a traditional sports wager often depends on the platform's structure, the types of events offered, and the applicable age and licensing requirements. As the sector evolves, understanding these differences is essential for both participants and policymakers.
